Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design

Okay, I do not design spacecraft.  But almost all of these laws seem generally applicable to the engineering I do!

I especially like these and have found them to be true (even though we violate them continually at work!): #3, #7, #15, #20, and #40.

First, the link:
"Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design"
http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html


Now the list, in case that link goes bad in the future:
1. Engineering is done with numbers. Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

2. To design a spacecraft right takes an infinite amount of effort. This is why it's a good idea to design them to operate when some things are wrong .

3. Design is an iterative process. The necessary number of iterations is one more than the number you have currently done. This is true at any point in time.

4. Your best design efforts will inevitably wind up being useless in the final design. Learn to live with the disappointment.

5. (Miller's Law) Three points determine a curve.

6. (Mar's Law) Everything is linear if plotted log-log with a fat magic marker.

7. At the start of any design effort, the person who most wants to be team leader is least likely to be capable of it.

8. In nature, the optimum is almost always in the middle somewhere. Distrust assertions that the optimum is at an extreme point.

9. Not having all the information you need is never a satisfactory excuse for not starting the analysis.

10. When in doubt, estimate. In an emergency, guess. But be sure to go back and clean up the mess when the real numbers come along.

11. Sometimes, the fastest way to get to the end is to throw everything out and start over.

12. There is never a single right solution. There are always multiple wrong ones, though.

13. Design is based on requirements. There's no justification for designing something one bit "better" than the requirements dictate.

14. (Edison's Law) "Better" is the enemy of "good".

15. (Shea's Law) The ability to improve a design occurs primarily at the interfaces. This is also the prime location for screwing it up.

16. The previous people who did a similar analysis did not have a direct pipeline to the wisdom of the ages. There is therefore no reason to believe their analysis over yours. There is especially no reason to present their analysis as yours.

17. The fact that an analysis appears in print has no relationship to the likelihood of its being correct.

18. Past experience is excellent for providing a reality check. Too much reality can doom an otherwise worthwhile design, though.

19. The odds are greatly against you being immensely smarter than everyone else in the field. If your analysis says your terminal velocity is twice the speed of light, you may have invented warp drive, but the chances are a lot better that you've screwed up.

20. A bad design with a good presentation is doomed eventually. A good design with a bad presentation is doomed immediately.

21. (Larrabee's Law) Half of everything you hear in a classroom is crap. Education is figuring out which half is which.

22. When in doubt, document. (Documentation requirements will reach a maximum shortly after the termination of a program.)

23. The schedule you develop will seem like a complete work of fiction up until the time your customer fires you for not meeting it.

24. It's called a "Work Breakdown Structure" because the Work remaining will grow until you have a Breakdown, unless you enforce some Structure on it.

25. (Bowden's Law) Following a testing failure, it's always possible to refine the analysis to show that you really had negative margins all along.

26. (Montemerlo's Law) Don't do nuthin' dumb.

27. (Varsi's Law) Schedules only move in one direction.

28. (Ranger's Law) There ain't no such thing as a free launch.

29. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Program Management) To get an accurate estimate of final program requirements, multiply the initial time estimates by pi, and slide the decimal point on the cost estimates one place to the right.

30. (von Tiesenhausen's Law of Engineering Design) If you want to have a maximum effect on the design of a new engineering system, learn to draw. Engineers always wind up designing the vehicle to look like the initial artist's concept.

31. (Mo's Law of Evolutionary Development) You can't get to the moon by climbing successively taller trees.

32. (Atkin's Law of Demonstrations) When the hardware is working perfectly, the really important visitors don't show up.

33. (Patton's Law of Program Planning) A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan next week.

34. (Roosevelt's Law of Task Planning) Do what you can, where you are, with what you have.

35. (de Saint-Exupery's Law of Design) A designer knows that he has achieved perfection not when there is nothing left to add, but when there is nothing left to take away.

36. Any run-of-the-mill engineer can design something which is elegant. A good engineer designs systems to be efficient. A great engineer designs them to be effective.

37. (Henshaw's Law) One key to success in a mission is establishing clear lines of blame.

38. Capabilities drive requirements, regardless of what the systems engineering textbooks say.

39. Any exploration program which "just happens" to include a new launch vehicle is, de facto, a launch vehicle program.

39. (alternate formulation) The three keys to keeping a new manned space program affordable and on schedule:
       1)  No new launch vehicles.
       2)  No new launch vehicles.
       3)  Whatever you do, don't develop any new launch vehicles.

40. (McBryan's Law) You can't make it better until you make it work.

41. Space is a completely unforgiving environment. If you screw up the engineering, somebody dies (and there's no partial credit because most of the analysis was right...)

Saturday, March 26, 2016

Song of the Day: Kelela - All the Way Down

Another song that I heard on a recent flight.  You never know where you're going to find great music.  Love the vibe of this song.

Kelela - All the Way Down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzXGbtC_f5w



Lyrics, from SongLyrics.com:
http://www.songlyrics.com/kelela/all-the-way-down-lyrics/

Kelela - All the Way Down Lyrics
Artist: Kelela
Album: Hallucinogen EP

When you’re riding
Down at night
But you say

[Verse 1]
The only way to sum it up
Is falling roller-coaster rush
I’m doing things that I don’t do
So comfortable when I’m with you
Kinda took me by surprise
I love it and I don’t know why
You shot it and you got it
And I don’t wanna fight it
So hold me while were taking this ride

[Pre-Chorus]
You, when it's good I'm questioning
You, then I stop to take it in

[Chorus]
Is my head in the way?
Cause my heart can't explain
Where we going now?
Build it up, we tear down
Cared before but baby
Now I don’t give a fuck

All the way down
On a one way to you
I'm on my way down
No matter what your going through

[Verse 2]
I’m staying over at yours tonight
I'm calling late let’s exercise
There’s something buried in your eyes
Draws me in and I can’t hide
I’m clocking in today I'm on one
I came in hard I hope you don’t run
I tell him all about it but even I would doubt it
They never seen the things that you do

[Pre-Chorus]
You, when it's good I'm questioning
You, then I stop to take it in

[Chorus]
Is my head in the way?
Cause my heart can't explain
Where we going now?
Build it up, we tear down
Cared before but baby
Now I don’t give a fuck

All the way down
On a one way to you
All the way down
No matter what your going through

[Bridge]
Take it in, Take it in
All I wanna do is
Stay with it, stay with it
And I know that you won’t
Play with it, play with it
Are you ready? Hold on
Take it in, Take it in
All I wanna do it
Stay with it, stay with it
And I know that you won't
Play with it, hold on

When it’s good I’m questioning
You, then I start to take it in
Is my head in the way?
Cause my heart can't explain
Where we going now?
Build it up, we tear down
Cared before but baby
Now I don’t give a fuck

All the way down [X4]

Baby what you wanna do?

Friday, March 25, 2016

Finally some rational comments about Cuba

Kudos to Dan Le Batard for injecting some needed perspective on Obama's disgraceful visit to Cuba, and the disgraceful baseball game taking place.

I'll let these links speak for themselves.

From ESPN:
"'Historic' game in Cuba ignores the pain so many people endured"
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/15032737/historic-game-cuba-ignores-pain-many-people-endured
Le Batard's article, and an interview he gave

From the NY Daily News:
"ESPN radio host Dan Le Batard wants to know how bringing baseball to Cuba will help its people"
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/watch-espn-le-batard-skeptical-mlb-visit-cuba-article-1.2573285

From ESPN:
"U.S. visit to Cuba 'already a loss'"  (Le Batard paraphrasing/reading the above article)
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=15040419&ex_cid=espnapi_internal

Let's see how ESPN responds to Le Batard's comments.  Will he be fired?  Speculation from Awful Announcing:
http://awfulannouncing.com/2016/dan-lebatard-blasts-espns-coverage-of-cuba-game-in-miami-herald-column.html


Just to show you how weak our president is, remember this.  Raul Castro made Obama an offer, and Obama was not enough of a man to take him up on it.  From the Free Beacon:
http://freebeacon.com/blog/raul-castro-wants-a-list-of-political-prisoners-in-cuba-here-it-is/
Just mention the list. What political prisoners. Give me a name or names or when after this meeting is over, you can give me a list of political prisoners, and if we have those political prisoners they will be released before tonight ends.
So what did Obama do?  Nothing, of course.  As always.  From ABC News:
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-handed-dissidents-list-castro/story?id=37822698
Obama said, with a straight face somehow, that "...what we can do and will continue to do is to stand up for the rights we consider to be universal."  Not sure how he plans to do that if he won't even respond to Raul Castro's statement with a simple list.

For the record, here is the list.  From the Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba:
http://www.fhrcuba.org/2015/07/release-list-of-political-prisoners-still-serving-unjust-time-in-cuban-jails-whose-families-receive-monthly-humanitarian-support-from-canf-fhrc/
UPDATED (February 19th, 2016): See updated list below.
UPDATED (January 6th, 2016): #54 Vladimir Morera Bacallao Morera is no longer on hunger Strike. #7 Yuselín Ferrera sentence completed. #48 Eliover Quevedo sentence completed. #53 Rafael Felipe sentence completed. In addition, the Foundation has updated the list below to include the following additional political prisoners currently serving unjust time in Cuban prisons:  #20 Alexeis Serrano Avila, #21 Fernando Isael Peña Tamayo, #22 Silverio Portal Contrera, #23 Carlos Manuel Figueroa Alvarez, #34 Mario Alberto Hernández Leyva, #35 Orlando Contrera Aguilar, #36 Ricardo González Sendiña, #37 Ariel González Sendiña, #38 Hugo Damián Prieto Blanco, #39 Wilberto Parada Milán, #40 Nora Lisset Hernández Bulís, #43 Miguel Borroto Vázquez, #44 José David González Fumero, #45 Mario Morera Jardines, #46 Osmani Mendoza Ferriol.
UPDATED (October 20, 2015) #36 Danilo Maldonado Machado Valle Grande, Habana DESACATO PENDING DEC 24, 2014 – RELEASED October 20, 2015
UPDATED (September 15, 2015 10:12 am): The Foundation has updated the list below to include the following additional political prisoners currently serving unjust time in Cuban prisons: #15 Emilio Serrano Rodríguez, #16 Santiago Cisneros Castellanos, #17 Enrique Bartolomé Cámbara, #18 Edilberto Arzuaga Alcalá, #19 Ernesto Ortega Sarduy, #20 Isaín López Luna, #21 Jordys Manuel Dosil Fong, #22 Alexander Alan Rodríguez, #23 Carlos Amaury Calderín Roca, #24 Reinier Rodríguez Mendoza.
UPDATED (September 12, 2015 10:42 am): The Foundation has received confirmation that political prisoner #2 on our list, Andri Frometa Cuenca, was released from prison earlier this morning from the Combinado de Guantanamo. He has been imprisoned since 1991 and faced 47 years of incarceration.
UPDATED (September 11, 2015, 1:46 pm): All political prisoners listed below continue to serve unjust sentences in Cuba.
UPDATED (July 30, 2015): Three political prisoners have been added (#28, #29, #30) to the list below, bringing total number of political prisoners to 29 + Yessel Boni Rivero (#24) released on “conditional parole” in July of 2015.
UPDATED (July 8, 2015, 11:00 am ET) : The Foundation has received confirmation that political prisoner #24 on our list, Yessel Boni Rivero, son of Yaquelin Boni (Ladies in White member), was released from prison late last night under “extra penal license,” a type of conditional parole.  Yaquelin Boni stated to FHRC that this was “an achievement of our Lady in White sisters and the support of all people of goodwill inside and outside of Cuba.”
Miami, FL – The recent controversy regarding the number of long term (more than 6 months) political prisoners in Cuban jails have prompted The Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba (FHRC) and The Cuban American National Foundation (CANF) to release the names of 27 Cuban political prisoners whose families receive monthly humanitarian support from the FHRC and CANF. The respective staffs of these NGOs maintain constant communication with the families of those political prisoners, and therefore, can attest to the existence and dire conditions of imprisonment of each of them. This list is not exhaustive, since there are other long-term Cuban political prisoners being assisted by other NGOs.
1
Liusban John Utra
PRISION PROVINCIAL LAS TUNAS
ROBO CON FUERZA
7
MARZO 6/2013
2
Ricardo Pelier Frómeta
COMBINADO DE GUANTANAMO
DESORDEN PUBLICO
3
MAYO 15/14
3
Aracelio Riveaux Noa
AGUADORES, SANTIAGO
ATENTADO
2
MAY 28/2015
4
Eglis Heredia Rodríguez
MAR VERDE, SANTIAGO
ATENTADO
5
MAYO 13/14
5
Daniel Ernesto Dufó Preval
COMBINADO DE GUANTANAMO
DESORDEN PUBLICO
2
 
6
Yoelkis Rosabal Flores
COMBINADO DE GUANTANAMO
DESORDEN PUBLICO
4
 
7
Amado Verdecia Díaz
AGUADORES, SANTIAGO
ATENTADO
5
OCT 20/14
8
Mario Ronaide Figueroa Dieguez
AGUADORES, SANTIAGO
Desorden Público
3
DIC 2/14
9
María del Carmen Cala Aguilera
CARCEL DE MUJERES, HOLGUIN
Atentado
PENDIENTE
 
10
Yosvani Arostegui Armenteros
CERAMICA ROJA, CAMAGÜEY
ATENTADO
PENDIENTE
ENERO 8/2015
11
Santiago Cisneros Castellanos
AGUADORES, SANTIAGO
ATENTADO
PENDIENTE
 
12
Enrique Bartolomé Cámbara
KILO 8, CAMAGÜEY
HURTO Y SACRIFICIO
8
JUL 21/2014
13
Edilberto Arzuaga Alcalá
CERÁMICA ROJA, CAMAGÜEY
MULTA NO PAGADA
1
SEP 27/2011
14
David Fernández Cardoso
    
15
Maikel Mediaceja Ramos
    
16
Laudelino Rodríguez Mendoza
    
17
Yosvani Isaguirre
    
18
Alexeis Serrano Avila
AGUADORES, SANTIAGO
ATENTADO
4
 
19
Niorbis Rivera Guerra
   
SEPT 25/ 2015
20
Fernando Isael Peña Tamayo
PRISION PROVINCIAL LAS TUNAS
ROBO CON FUERZA
PENDIENTE
AGO 15/2015
21
Leonardo Coba
    
22
Silverio Portal Contrera
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO, INTENTO DE HURTO
1
 
23
Osvaldo Rodriguez Acosta
MAYABEQUE
ATENTADO
9
ABRIL 2/2013
24
Osvaldo Rodriguez Castillo
MAYABEQUE
ATENTADO
7
ABRIL 2/2013
25
Mario Alberto Hernández Leyva
VALLE GRANDE
ATENTADO
Pendiente
JUN 16/2015
26
Orlando Contrera Aguilar
QUIVICÁN, MAYABEQUE
Hurto 
6
JUN 16/2015
27
Osmani Mendoza Ferriol
LAS MANGAS, BAYAMO
ATENTADO Y DESACATO
4 AÑOS
SEPT 27/2013
28
Augusto Guerra Márquez
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO
2
DIC 12 /2015
29
Ricardo González Sendiña
COMBINADO DEL ESTE, HABANA
Hurto y sacrificio (sin pruebas)
Pendiente
 
30
Ariel González Sendiña
COMBINADO DEL ESTE, HABANA
Hurto y sacrificio (sin pruebas)
Pendiente
 
31
Leudis Reyes Cuza
COMBINADO DEL ESTE, HABANA
ATENTADO
5
SEP 24 / 2015
32
Reinier Rodríguez Mendoza
SAN JOSE, LA HABANA
PELIGROSIDAD
2
OCT 19/2015
33
Ernesto Ortega Sarduy
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO 
PENDIENTE
SEPT 30/2015
34
Isaín López Luna
1580
DESACATO 
PENDIENTE
5
35
Warley Pérez Cruz
TACO TACO
AMENAZA
6 MESES
OCT 13 / 2015
36
Nora Lisset Hernández Bulís
MANTO NEGRO
   
37
Jordys Manuel Dosil Fong
1580
PELIGROSIDAD
3
 
38
Alexander Alan Rodríguez
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO
PENDIENTE
 
39
Emilio Serrano Rodríguez
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO Y ATENTADO
PENDIENTE
OCT 22/2015
40
Carlos Amaury Calderín Roca
VALLE GRANDE
DESACATO
3
 
41
Misael Delgado Romeu
KM 5 Y MEDIO, P DEL RIO
Hurto y sacrificio (sin pruebas)
6
 
42
Yoanny Thomas González
COMBINADO DEL ESTE, HABANA
TERRORISMO, lanchaBaraguá
Cadena perpetua
 
43
Elieski Roque Chongo
ARIZA, CIENFUEGOS
INTENTO LASCIVO
5
0CT 17/2014
44
Alfredo Limonte Rodríguez
ARIZA, CIENFUEGOS
AMENAZA Y ATENTADO
4                                        2
6 MESES
45
Joel Mariano Bencomo Martínez
GUAMAJAL, VILLA CLARA
FILMAR ACTOS DE LA OPOSICION
3
 
46
Vladimir Morera Bacallao
hospital nacional
en huelga de hambre
 
OCT 1/2015
47
Yaxiel Espino Aceval
ARIZA, CIENFUEGOS
Desacato, daños
4
MAR 29/2014
48
José David González Fumero
NIEVES MOREJON
DESACATO Y DAÑOS
PENDIENTE
 
49
Mario Morera Jardines
EL CHIVO, VILLA CLARA
PELIGROSIDAD
3
 
50
Miguel Borroto Vázquez
VALLE GRANDE
ATENTADO
PENDIENTE
JUL 31/2015
51
Osvaldo Arcís Hernández
PROVARI (Campamento)
PELIGROSIDAD
2
DIC 9 /2015
*The last column may refer to either years served or date of entry to prison.
**The list of “charges” has been left written in Spanish without translation since, in most cases, there are no comparable legal terms and most charges are completely arbitrary.
The FHRC calls for the immediate release of all remaining political prisoners in Cuba, permanently and without conditions, including forced exile, parole, house arrest, and or any type of further harassment, detainment, or repression for political motives.
The FHRC is aware that there are additional political prisoners, outside of the list provided above, who are currently serving unjust sentences in Cuba. The FHRC requests that these individuals also receive full consideration for their immediate, unconditional release.
The Foundation for Human Rights in Cuba (“FHRC”) is a 501(c)3 nonprofit organization established in 1992 to promote a nonviolent transition to a free and democratic Cuba by empowering independent Civil Society within Cuba. FHRC maintains regular contact with human rights defenders and civic activists who are working for change in Cuba through nonviolent means.
The Cuban American National Foundation’s mission is to advocate for a non-violent transition to a free and democratic Cuba, a nation that fosters economic prosperity with individual equality and social justice for all; upholds the rule of law and protects the social, economic and political rights of its entire people. To that end, CANF seeks to engage, support and empower Cubans on the island to become the architects of their own destiny by uniting, organizing and reclaiming their inalienable rights. In the continuation of the struggle for those ideals, the Cuban American National Foundation reaffirms its sacred commitment to Cuba and all Cubans.
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